Bernie Sanders can still win the Democratic nomination.
I don’t care what you’ve heard, I don’t care how supposedly reliable your sources are. The truth is that Sanders is still very capable of winning the Democratic nomination. Here are a few things you need to understand before we get into exactly how he can (and hopefully will) win.
A super-delegate is an unelected delegate who is free to support any candidate for the presidential nomination at the party’s national convention. Pledged delegates, on the other hand, are elected or chosen at the state or local level based on the party primaries and caucuses in each state, and are selected under the understanding that they will support a particular candidate at the convention. Because super-delegates independently decide whom they wish to support, they have the power to potentially swing results and nominate a candidate who may not have received the majority of votes during the primaries.
Flashback to 2008
The last time super-delegates potentially mattered as much as they do in this election was in 2008, when Clinton was running against current President Barack Obama in a very close race. A swing vote by super-delegates could have flipped the Democratic nomination on its head and crowned Clinton the winner. However, in that election, Clinton stepped down in June after the final votes were cast. Her decision to step down made the super-delegate question irrelevant.
In 2008, conceding was her best option given her circumstances: Massive campaign debt, the potential to be named Secretary of State, and the fact that Obama crushed it in the second half of the election season, winning 16 of the remaining 25 states. She had, however, deeply contemplated continuing her campaign despite obvious signs pointing towards her resignation. And why? For the very same reason that Bernie Sanders can still win the Democratic nomination this year.
Super-delegates primary purpose: to overturn, if necessary, the popular-vote and delegate-count results.
If Sanders does run the table, it means that some very specific scenarios will have taken place by June 7th at the latest:
- Sanders will need to win 19 out of the remaining 25 state primaries and caucuses.
- Sanders will need to be within a few hundred thousand votes of Clinton in the popular vote.
- Sanders will need to win 54% of the pledged delegates since Super Tuesday
- Sanders will need to be extremely close to Clinton in national polling.
Please note that none of these four factors are by any means impossible.
And here’s the kicker.
If Sanders does run better than Obama did in 2008 in the second half of primaries, super-delegates suddenly become extremely important to this election and specifically, to Sanders. Some factors to consider that differentiate this Democratic nomination from 2008:
- People LOVE Sanders. He has higher favorable ratings, despite the numerous attacks against him from Clinton and the GOP.
- Sanders beats Trump nationally by 12 points, while Clinton only beats him by 6.
- Sanders beats Trump more than Clinton does in every battleground state.
- Sanders beats Trump by 22 points among independents, and Clinton loses independents to Trump by 2.
One other vital factor is that Democrats are rightfully worried about Clinton’s ability to win this election. For many, a Clinton nominee is synonymous with a Donald Trump presidency. Trump is the most internationally unpopular American presidential candidate ever.
Yet, Clinton is locked in a dead heat with him in the three most important battleground states (Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania). The fact that she is struggling as much as she is isn’t looking overly convincing for hopeful Democrats, and their concerns are entirely legitimate.
This month could easily be quite nasty for Clinton.
Picture this— loss, after loss, after loss. State by state, she’s losing her battle. She’s behind Trump in national polling, she’s still tied with him in battleground states, in a tight battle she lost the pledged-delegate battle to Sanders. She loses 19 of the 25 final state primaries and caucuses. She’s losing independent voters left, right and center. And let’s not forget that pesky little FBI investigation, and the claims from an international criminal stating he has hacked into her personal servers and stolen her highly classified data. And to top it all off, Sanders’ supporters are adamantly refusing to vote for her.
Yet Clinton’s campaign doesn’t anticipate losing any super-delegates under these circumstances.
Every non-partisan who has examined the scenario above unanimously agree that super-delegates would swing their votes to Sanders; it’s just a matter of how many. Most agree that it would be a vast amount— enough to make Sanders’ chances of earning the Democratic nomination a lot more promising.
He had to win Indiana… which he did. And he had to win West Virginia… which he did.
Oregon is a safe win next week and Kentucky is certainly possible.
June 7th will hopefully bring about victories for him in California, North and South Dakota, Montana and New Mexico.
Winning New Jersey does not look likely for him at all, but the thing is, he doesn’t even need it.
Sanders sweeping up on June 7th isn’t just a wishful dream; it’s a completely real possibility and it’s approaching fast.
It’s looking promising that next week, Sanders winning streak will continue and he will win Kentucky and Oregon. If so, June 7th could be a total game-changer for the entire American election.
Democratic voters must understand that regardless of what the media is leading you to believe, the Democratic primary is far from over.
Anything can happen, and hopefully it will.